Interesting times for autos

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SLR No.77
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#141 The initial deposit and optional balloon payment applies whichever car you buy on PCP, plus the charging box would be paid for in savings on servicing. Not very fair to slant the maths just because you won't be buying one.  EV costs are very different to those involved with running an ICE car, the big variability of charging costs being one example which doesn't exist with petrol or diesel. Add to that the biggest cost in owning of any car being depreciation and the finances can become quite complex for a lot of people, very much the reason why so many cars are bought on pcp, somebody else has factored the depreciation enabling the numbers to be clear.  
EVs are here, and here to stay. To suggest they're just a rich person's plaything is wholly inaccurate, 5 years ago maybe, but not now. Prices on the used market will fall but prices of used ICE cars will start to fall even further as EVs take hold of the market. A big positive for the used car buyer will be a flood of sub-£5K ICE cars of far better standard/spec.

Stu.

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Golf Juliet Tango
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From ten years ago:- researched data but really difficult to assess thus guidelines and reliable indications of the impact.

The carbon footprint of a new car:

6 tonnes CO2e: Citroen C11, 7 tonnes CO2e: Ford Mondeo, 35 tonnes CO2e: Land Rover Discovery,

A new car demands vast amounts of plastic and your s/h car will filter another one off the road down the line

Producing a medium-sized new car costing £24,000 (2010 figure) may generate more than 17 tonnes of CO2e – almost as much as three years' worth of gas and electricity in the typical UK home. 

the impact of the manufacture of Land Rover Discovery that ends up being scrapped after 100,000 miles may be as much as four times higher than the tailpipe emissions of a Citroen C1 over the same lifetime.

Unless you do very high mileage or have a real gas-guzzler, it generally makes sense to keep your old car for as long as it is reliable – and to look after it carefully to extend its life as long as possible. If you make a car last to 200,000 miles rather than 100,000, then the emissions for each mile the car does in its lifetime may drop by as much as 50%, as a result of getting more distance out of the initial manufacturing emissions.

Stephen

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john aston
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I was following a new-ish Discovery in my MX5 yesterday, in slow traffic . My God they are bloody enormous ! Comically high , obscenely wide , but not very handsome. If you don't tow a horse box  while carrying your large family - just why ? The roads are the same width  as they were 50 years ago  - why effectively reduce their size even more by driving truck sized cars ? 

Jonathan Kay
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"Subsidies to early adopters are nothing new. Yes, they generally go to the better-off as they're the only people who can afford to be early adopters. The idea is that it kick-starts the industry, and helps prices fall to the point where ordinary people can afford them. Same with solar - the economics in the early days would have been laughable without subsidy, but now it's (just about) worthwhile even with no subsidy.

Whether it really works or not is difficult to measure. Maybe prices would have fallen just as much without the subsidy. Or maybe not. And with electric cars, we're still waiting for them to become affordable - but subsidies probably did help to get things started."

Yes. And in addition to straight subsidies consistency is need to build confidence. 

I wondered if this change was connected to a shift of subsidies to the charging infrastructure... but it isn't:

"Plug-in Grant (PICG) for EVs: government pulls the plug" by the excellent David Bailey.

Jonathan

DougBaker
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Clearly a few folks need to read more Terry Pratchett

The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money. Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles. But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while a poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet. This was the Captain Samuel Vimes "Boots" theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

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OldAndrewE
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Ref #146.  Very OT. I have not read any Terry Pratchett books but I thought the TV series "The Watch" was very good. Still available on I player.  The Vimes "boots theory" in included

Andrew

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Roger Ford
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#140 "How does changing the car often affect the environment? They don't go to scrap they go to another next owner as a more affordable option to a new car."

One of two things must be true:

  1. A car drops off the bottom of the list as everyone upgrades, and is scrapped
  2. There are more cars on the road (using "on the road" in the sense of "not scrapped").

Now it could perhaps be argued that (1) is a way of getting the oldest, worst polluting cars off the system, but aren't people always telling us that keeping an old car is better than scrapping it and buying a new car? And if that's true, it should be just as true if there's a chain of people between the person scrapping the vehicle and the person buying a new car.

As for (2) *maybe* it doesn't matter much if there are more cars, so long as the number and length of journeys stay the same. But I doubt that would happen. If my wife and I share a car, then we buy another so we have one each, there are bound to be times when we use both (or why did we bother?). About the only time it might have some benefit is if someone supplements their long distance gas-guzzler with an economical town car for shorter journeys.

TomB
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It does - we're used to paying monthly to fund cars, as we don't have the funds to roll up to VW and drop £15-20k on a new (to us) car every 5-6 years. Our last one was a -3 year old Golf that we put a deposit/ trade in on and funded the remainder through a 5 year bank loan at about £250pcm.  

I think you're mistaken on the 'very long time for normal workers' - assuming most people buy new cars on PCP/lease/finance which they do. My wife is a part time primary teacher and Im a middling engineer/ scientist in a multinational consultancy - normal mid grade white collar type jobs - so probably doing OK within your 'normal workers' grade.  The key for us is able to charge at home and having a high fuel cost - makes the move much easier. Pre EV don't suit everyone, and they possibly wont be a long time.  Good job we can buy new hybrids until 2035, so you wont be forced into an EV through no choice until early 2040s.  

PS charging boxes are dropping too - ours was £800, and that local supplier will now do one at £595 for a simple straightforward job.